Rupee Expected to Remain Stable Despite RBI Intervention

Rupee Forecast: Stable Rupee Expected in Coming Months Due to RBI Intervention – The Indian rupee is expected to trade in a narrow range against the US dollar in the coming months, according to a Reuters poll of analysts. This stability is attributed to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) consistent intervention in the forex market.

• Rupee Performance: Year-to-date, the rupee has depreciated only 0.3% against the dollar, outperforming most Asian currencies.
• RBI Intervention: The central bank’s forex sales (evident from declining reserves) are seen as a key factor limiting rupee volatility.
• Analyst Forecast: The rupee is expected to trade around 83.47/$ currently, and then strengthen slightly to 83.29/$ in three months.

The poll also highlights factors influencing the rupee’s long-term outlook

• Fed Rate Hikes: The US Federal Reserve‘s delayed rate cuts benefit the rupee in the near term.
• Indian Growth: India’s position as the fastest-growing major economy is seen as a positive for the rupee in the long run.

Analysts Forecast predict a gradual appreciation of the rupee, reaching 82.95/$ in six months and 82.60/$ in a year.

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