Researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology-Madras (IIT-M) have developed a new approach to assess the climate change model in India. Their method offers a more reliable way to predict climate variations and uncertainties, which is crucial for informed planning.
Challenges of Traditional IIT-Madras Climate Model
- Globally, climate change researchers rely on reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Global Climate Models (GCMs).
- While GCMs offer valuable insights, they struggle with regional climate assessments.
IIT-Madras Proposes Multimodal Approach
- IIT-M researchers propose a multimodal approach using Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) to quantify uncertainties in climate models.
- This method considers factors like natural variability, future projections, and model uncertainties for a more comprehensive analysis.
Benefits of REA for Climate Change Assessment
- The REA method offers more dependable estimates of climate change in monsoon-prone regions like India.
- It harnesses model bias to project climate variations and assigns weightage to different models for a more accurate picture.
Study Findings
- Researchers used REA to evaluate seasonal precipitation changes in Coimbatore, Rajkot, Udaipur, and Siliguri, representing diverse Indian climates.
- The study revealed that traditional GCMs perform poorly in predicting skewed rainfall distribution.
- However, the REA method provided the most reliable estimates and quantified uncertainties across various models.
Published Research
The IIT-M research has been published in the peer-reviewed Journal of Water and Climate Change. This novel approach provides valuable insights for policymakers and planners to make informed decisions regarding climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies in India.
